The earth as we know it has been in existence for millions of years and even though there is proof of shifts in the Red Sea Rift and East African Rift, what happened in the UK on Thursday night was of seismic proportions and the world would never be the same again.
The United Kingdom has voted to ‘Leave’ the European Union. The UK has gone from granting independence to other countries to seeking one of its own.
Here is my take on this historic decision and what I imagine the world would look like.
The economy
I’m refusing to give in to the panic and fear that was propagated before the referendum. So far, all the major stakeholders seem to be holding their peace. During the campaign, I listened to Frances O’Grady, the Secretary General of the British Trades Union Congress (TUC) raise concerns about how the workers at car manufacturing companies like Nissan wanted the country to remain in the UK. As a region, the North East has higher than average unemployment rates so I’m guessing they will know a bit about the economy and I’ll listen to them. Sunderland voted Brexit by a margin wider than was expected and the whole North East voted along the same line 58% to 42%. It’s either these folks have a different opinion of the economy to Prime Minister David Cameron or there is something else they are concerned about which he does not get. I think it’s the latter. Either way, he is paying the price for his error in judgement now.
There are 3 options to address and manage any perceived downturns of the economy and 2 of the options are completely no go areas. The Chancellor George Osborne failed with his most recent attempt to introduce more cuts, so this rules out option 1 – more cuts. The second option would be to attempt to raise taxes and this is also dead on arrival because it has a higher probability of doing more harm than good. The third option is to spend more to prop up the economy and to raise the funds, the country goes borrowing. I think the bulk of this money will come from China. I am willing to bet that in the short run, there will be more money to spend than this economy could ever have expected. This is the only point at which I have a concern. I don’t know what a world run by China would look like.
I except to see the Bank of England doing their best to keep inflation low and I won’t expect any rate changes for the next few months.
Winner: China
Loser: George Osborne
Europe and the world around us
The outcome of the referendum in the UK has changed Europe too. In this regard, timing is everything. I see a two-year short term period that will determine the larger outcomes. Europe can’t hold on against UK for much longer than this and this would be their preferred option to stem the tide of other members wanting to leave the union. But they will also be hurting themselves in the process. Germany will need to take care and not allow their car exports to be replaced by Chinese and Japanese cars.
I however have no doubts that the UK will be seriously marginalised and it in the short run, it will look attractive to Scotland and North Ireland to leave the union and opt out in favour of Europe. I see this changing within the medium to longer term and if they have not left the union already then they won’t have a reason to any more. By this time, the UK will have trade deals with almost every country of the world including Europe and Europe will still be stuck in negotiations, both within and without. Obama was not telling the truth when he said the UK will move to the back of the queue.
Would there be companies scrambling to move some of their operations out of the UK? Definitely. But I’ll expect them to wait till article 51 is triggered and they know what they are running from. I expect the government to find a way to isolate London. I expect there will be some restrictions on movement to work and settle but none for holiday travels.
Would Turkey join the European Union in year 3000? I don’t believe so. More like in the next five to 10 years.
Winner: UK
Loser: Europe
UK politics
This is a clear cut battle between Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage; and all I see is BoJo coming out on top. I’ve watched the actions of both men since the voting closed. Farage has made three or four presentations and Johnson has made none other than to sign letter supporting Cameron as PM, the man whose job he will take in the next three months.
I don’t believe that the fact that a majority of the country has voted to leave Europe means that Farage is a loved man. The average man on the street is still tolerant of foreigners and Farage has taken too many wrong turns.
Cameron has made BoJo’s path to the premiership of the UK easier and faster than I imagined 12 months ago. Are there other possible candidates for this position in the Conservative Party? Theresa May has been very quiet till now and I doubt that Michael Gove will take on BoJo.
I see another good coming out of this. The UK is now set to become the most dynamic country on earth. Will the immigration dynamics change? I don’t know. Ask the people. For a long time to come, no parliament will ever be comfortable with their five-year mandate anymore. This country has never being timid to vote against Europe. Now, they will not be timid to vote against their elected leaders. We would never be allowed to forget why Jo Cox lost her life.
Winner: Boris Johnson
Loser: David Cameron / Nigel Farage
Myself
I’ll be happy if I still have a job at the end of the year and I won’t be looking forward to any substantial increase. I would probably take a bit more care with expenditures more as a precaution rather than out of necessity. Will I be going ahead to order for my brand new German brand car next year as planned? Definitely!
Do I think this will be the case for everyone else, hopefully.
Winner:??
Loser:??
Why: our worlds have changed and will never be the same again.
- Fagbile lives in the UK. He can be reached at fagbile@yahoo.com
